Anyone worried about Russia-Ukraine crisis

[Rachel]

I saw this cartoon, which seems to sum up Putin's Stalin-like paranoia.

WhatsApp Image 2022-04-18 at 11.43.51 AM.jpeg

[swingaleg]

One of the Vlogs I follow on YouTube is an ordinary Russian family who post about life in Russia, food, housing, holidays and trips etc

They upped and left the country about a month ago and went to Uzbekistan

Here's the first vlog after they left the country and gives a good insight into what the Russian people know about what's going on ... video proper starts about 1 minute 30 seconds

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M6fZ3HgYwWI&t=1087s

[Peregrine Trousers]

^^ further to the above, yoday's excuse = 'just thinking aloud'... some of my speculation might possibly warrant a degree of adjustment now that I have actually bothered to read up a bit... but left for posterity, proof of fallibility though more to the point, a demonstration if how our assumptions can lead us to be so badly wrong!

Or not. As above, so below

It was a very well reasoned post with a number of interesting points to think about. Speculation, yes; but that's all we have at the moment with no idea what people are really thinking within the Kremlin.

[Doctor_Wibble]

^^ further to the above, yoday's excuse = 'just thinking aloud'... some of my speculation might possibly warrant a degree of adjustment now that I have actually bothered to read up a bit... but left for posterity, proof of fallibility though more to the point, a demonstration if how our assumptions can lead us to be so badly wrong!

Or not. As above, so below

It was a very well reasoned post with a number of interesting points to think about. Speculation, yes; but that's all we have at the moment with no idea what people are really thinking within the Kremlin.

With stuff like this I try to show my working, as it were - otherwise it's just typing up a bunch of my random thoughts without tying them to something in the real world...

My change of mind was based on their refurb expenditure and research/testing but I won't do a full reversal because refurb expenditure doesn't guarantee results and research doesn't get out into play until it actually fits into the delivery mechanism.
(but I still think a nuclear exchange is unlikely, I have spare noodles but won't be digging a bunker)

That said, I don't think it's speculation to suggest that Putin doesn't give a crap what happens to Ukraine outside of the areas he wants.

I was going to add something about Putin not just wanting to control the sea of Azov (being currently shared) but also wanting the coal and steel but now he's bombed (parts of) the steel plant, so either he is ready to rebuild that from the ground up or that's a price he's willing to pay.

Next stop the Bosphorus and then the Dardanelles, the latter I only remember from history lessons!

[Doctor_Wibble]

No doubt we're all pleased that Putin didn't officially declare war this morning but in equal measure disgusted at his hijacking of an important anniversary to justify what he's done, and ere hours after bombing a village school where most of the local population were sheltering.

Interesting side note, the air display was cancelled, apparently due to weather conditions which sounds like BS unless weird wind was going to mess up sky writing, trails etc.

[Doctor_Wibble]

Following the above, there was a distinct lack of the Z symbol anywhere, I think it was only seen worn by a few people in the immortal regiment parade.

Personal speculation, it has fallen out of favour and the air display due to feature it was cancelled because of it.

And to get this one (mangled from a satirical piece) off my chest as it's been sitting there for days..

"Big parade in Moscow, not many Zeds".

[Doctor_Wibble]

More of the speculatory

Seeing stuff about Russian media hinting at someone in the Lithuanian foreign office having parents or grandparents who during the war had some link to the nazis seems to suggest Lithuania is next in the firing line, or rather a corridor to reach Kaliningrad, presumably along/near the Lithuania/Poland border.

But it can't be taken by force because both those countries are in NATO and that would surely be a mess too far, so my expectation is that there will be some sort of game of chicken, gambling on the hope that Lithuania will hand over a strip of land or there will be some negotiated permanent lease, possibly including a motorway.

This mixed in with Lithuania being ex soviet (and Putin's desire to reclaim), Russia's remarks about 'quasi nation state' seem to be the opening bid...

Probably trivially debunked by checking actual expert opinions (which in some ways I hope I haven't just paraphrased) but this is where I feel it's headed.


But as we have seen, what Putin wants is not what Putin gets so I stay not-directly-worried.

[Doctor_Wibble]

Turns out all I had to do was look into the topic a bit further, The Suwalki Gap is the official name of the handy strip of land through through which Russian citizens may pass by means of a visa waiver.

And much has been written about it.

So I shall adjust my remarks above - not by as much as I had thought I might need to though - to make that 'taking permanent ownership of the corridor' rather than having to use it under licence which in kremlin terms would probably be described as subject to the whims of a country that defected to the west (etc).

[Doctor_Wibble]

(oops... as ever, started short, ended rambly)

So that seems to be that for Mariupol now that forces are leaving 'fortress azovstal', hopes for them being treated properly diminishing in the wake of pronouncements made by senior people in the Russian Duma that seem to be primarily based on daily mail articles from 2014 with little or no acknowledgement of the passage of time or the huge changes since then.

Once the place is confirmed empty, Russia will (if they bother) declare the Azov Sea Treaty void, the coastline being entirely Russian controlled now with no other countries having a claim on the sea.

Those evacuated to be used as bargaining chips to get war crimes charges dropped, given these pronouncements in the Duma if approved would mean no per-case evidence required, membership of denounced battalions being sufficient for a guilty verdict.

There might be some token trials but I suspect there will be a few key absences as part of exchanges to get everybody home.
That said, I am hoping that this will be only a temporary official thing, with lists of dropped charges to be accidentally leaked at a later date to inspire enterprising individuals to go on 'action adventure holidays' though I admit that does stem from my cynical optimism of people and their (preferably enlightened) self-interest.

Overall though I feel encouraged by apparent glimmers of hope from the retired general speaking critically on Russian TV hopefully reaches enough people without him being dismissed as some sort of token objector.

[Doctor_Wibble]

Aside from the aforenotmentioned retired General seemingly miraculously having had some sort of epiphany no doubt encouraged by the threat hinted gift of novichok flavoured herbal tea...

Just seen a report where the owner of one of the big ports in Ukraine was saying there's about 80
grain/crop ships sitting in or around his port, some empty some full but unable to go anywhere because the shipping insurers won't touch them because they might get hit or might hit a mine because the sea has been mined (!).

Bad right now but in a few weeks there's a fresh harvest coming and there's nowhere for it to go because they haven't exported the previous harvest yet and there's no space.

Soon to be something for the shortages thread if that doesn't get sorted out